When should you send your furnace tune-up email?
Pick your city. You get a send-by date that beats the first freeze in about 9 years out of 10, based on NOAA climate normals. Free, no sign-up.
How the date is set
NOAA publishes how often the first 32°F night has come by each date. The early date is NOAA's 10% date: in about 1 year in 10 the first freeze comes before it. We subtract 14 days so the email reaches customers, and they book, before the first cold night. The 14-day lead is our rule of thumb, not a NOAA number. Change it to fit how far out your schedule books.
Send-by dates for 46 cities
Earliest first. Dates repeat every year; they are long-term normals, not this year's forecast.
| City | Send tune-up email by | Early first freeze (1 in 10) | Middle first freeze |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fargo, ND | Sep 4 | Sep 18 | Sep 30 |
| Sioux Falls, SD | Sep 9 | Sep 23 | Oct 6 |
| Madison, WI | Sep 12 | Sep 26 | Oct 10 |
| Denver, CO | Sep 13 | Sep 27 | Oct 9 |
| Minneapolis, MN | Sep 17 | Oct 1 | Oct 18 |
| Des Moines, IA | Sep 20 | Oct 4 | Oct 20 |
| Grand Rapids, MI | Sep 20 | Oct 4 | Oct 20 |
| Boise, ID | Sep 21 | Oct 5 | Oct 21 |
| Omaha, NE | Sep 22 | Oct 6 | Oct 21 |
| Fort Wayne, IN | Sep 24 | Oct 8 | Oct 21 |
| Rochester, NY | Sep 24 | Oct 8 | Oct 25 |
| Kansas City, MO | Sep 25 | Oct 9 | Oct 24 |
| Pittsburgh, PA | Sep 25 | Oct 9 | Oct 23 |
| Buffalo, NY | Sep 26 | Oct 10 | Oct 26 |
| Cincinnati, OH | Sep 28 | Oct 12 | Oct 25 |
| Indianapolis, IN | Sep 29 | Oct 13 | Oct 26 |
| Columbus, OH | Sep 30 | Oct 14 | Oct 27 |
| Detroit, MI | Sep 30 | Oct 14 | Oct 27 |
| Chicago, IL | Oct 1 | Oct 15 | Oct 28 |
| Milwaukee, WI | Oct 1 | Oct 15 | Oct 29 |
| Lexington, KY | Oct 2 | Oct 16 | Oct 28 |
| Providence, RI | Oct 2 | Oct 16 | Oct 30 |
| Baltimore, MD | Oct 3 | Oct 17 | Oct 31 |
| Salt Lake City, UT | Oct 3 | Oct 17 | Oct 31 |
| Cleveland, OH | Oct 7 | Oct 21 | Nov 3 |
| Oklahoma City, OK | Oct 7 | Oct 21 | Nov 2 |
| Charlotte, NC | Oct 8 | Oct 22 | Nov 3 |
| Nashville, TN | Oct 8 | Oct 22 | Nov 3 |
| Raleigh, NC | Oct 9 | Oct 23 | Nov 4 |
| Richmond, VA | Oct 9 | Oct 23 | Nov 4 |
| St. Louis, MO | Oct 9 | Oct 23 | Nov 4 |
| Louisville, KY | Oct 14 | Oct 28 | Nov 7 |
| Boston, MA | Oct 15 | Oct 29 | Nov 9 |
| Portland, OR | Oct 15 | Oct 29 | Nov 19 |
| Birmingham, AL | Oct 16 | Oct 30 | Nov 11 |
| Philadelphia, PA | Oct 16 | Oct 30 | Nov 10 |
| Austin, TX | Oct 18 | Nov 1 | Nov 16 |
| Atlanta, GA | Oct 21 | Nov 4 | Nov 20 |
| Washington, DC | Oct 22 | Nov 5 | Nov 18 |
| Dallas-Fort Worth, TX | Oct 23 | Nov 6 | Nov 24 |
| New York, NY | Oct 23 | Nov 6 | Nov 20 |
| Seattle, WA | Oct 23 | Nov 6 | Nov 23 |
| San Antonio, TX * | Oct 24 | Nov 7 | Nov 28 |
| Norfolk, VA | Oct 25 | Nov 8 | Nov 23 |
| Houston, TX * | Nov 3 | Nov 17 | Dec 9 |
| Phoenix, AZ * | Dec 4 | Dec 18 | Jan 3 |
* Not every year brings a 32°F night here. Dates are for years when it does; each city page shows NOAA's yearly chance.
Then send the freeze reminder on time
The tune-up email goes out on a calendar date. The freeze reminder should go out when the cold is actually forecast. ForecastBooked checks the NWS forecast for the ZIPs you serve every 3 hours, and when the first freeze is in the forecast, a ready-to-edit email, text, Google post and social post appears on your kit page.
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Questions
When should an HVAC company send its fall tune-up email?
Before the first cold night, not after it. This timer suggests sending 14 days before the date when the first 32°F night has come in about 1 year in 10 (NOAA's 10% date). That way the email lands before the first freeze in about 9 years out of 10.
Why not use the average first freeze date?
NOAA's middle (50%) date is when half of years have already had their first freeze. If you send on that date, you are late about half the time, and the phones are already ringing.
Where do the dates come from?
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, U.S. Climate Normals 1991-2020, annual/seasonal normals for one major weather station per city. Fields ANN-TMIN-PRBFST-T32FP10, T32FP50 and T32FP90.
What if the send-by date has passed?
Send it now. Then watch the National Weather Service forecast for your ZIP and send a short freeze reminder when the first freezing night is actually forecast.
Does ForecastBooked do this automatically?
ForecastBooked checks the NWS forecast for the ZIPs you serve every 3 hours. When the first freeze is in the forecast, a ready-to-edit email, text, Google post and social post appears on your kit page for you to send to your own customers.
When a freezing night is actually forecast: free pipe-freeze checker by ZIP.
Source
Data: NOAA/NWS. NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, U.S. Climate Normals 1991-2020, annual/seasonal normals (ncei.noaa.gov). Each city page names its station and source file. ForecastBooked is not affiliated with or endorsed by NOAA or the National Weather Service.